CAROL ROSENPUBLICATIONS DIRECTORHYACINTH BILLINGSPRODUCTION MANAGERMAGGIE POWELLCOVER DESIGN AND LAYOUTCAROLL YNE HUTTEREDITINGEach World Resources Institute Report represents a timely, scholarly treatment of a subject of public concern. WRI takes responsibility for choosingthe study topics and guaranteeing its authors and researchers freedom ofCopyright 2001 World Resources Institute. All rights reserved.ISBN: 1-56973-458-5Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 2001088657Printed in the United States of America on chlorine-free paper withrecycled content of 50%, 20% of which is post-consumer.inquiry. It also solicits and responds to the guidance of advisory panels and expertreviewers. Unless otherwise stated, however, all the interpretation and findings setforth in WRI publications are those of the authors.Photo Credits: Cover: Digital Vision, Ltd., Smaller ecosystem photos: Forests: Digital Vision, Ltd.,Agriculture: Viet Nam, IFPRI Photo/P. Berry, Grasslands: PhotoDisc, Freshwater: Dennis A. Wentz,Coastal: Digital Vision, Ltd., Extent and Change: Patuxent River, Maryland/NOAA, ShorelineStabilization: Georgetown, Guyana/L. Burke, Water Quality: Noctiluca bloom, California/P.J.S.Franks, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Biodiversity: Caribbean Sea/NOAA, Marine Fisheries:NOAA, Tourism: Bunaken, North Sulawesi, Indonesia/L. Burke.

Pilot Analysis of Global EcosystemsCoastalEcosystemsLAURETT A B URKE –WRIYUMIKO K URA –WRIKEN K ASSEM –WRICARMEN R EVENGA –WRIM ARK SPALDING –UNEP-WCMCDON M CALLISTER –O CEAN V OICE I NTERNA TIONALWith analytical contributions from:John Caddy, Luca Garibaldi, and Richard Grainger, FAO FisheriesDepartment: trophic analysis of marine fisheries;Jaime Baquero, Gary Spiller, and Robert Cambell, Ocean Voice International: distribution of known trawling grounds;Lorin Pruett, Hal Palmer, and Joe Cimino, Veridian-MRJ TechnologySolutions: area of maritime zones and coastline length.Published by World Resources InstituteWashington, DCThis report is also available at

Pilot Analysis ofGlobal Ecosystems (PAGE)Project ManagementNorbert Henninger, WRIWalt Reid, WRIDan Tunstall, WRIValerie Thompson, WRIArwen Gloege, WRIElsie Velez-Whited, WRIAgroecosystemsStanley Wood, International FoodPolicy Research InstituteKate Sebastian, International FoodPolicy Research InstituteSara J. Scherr, University ofMarylandCoastal EcosystemsA series of five technical reports, available in print and on-line at Wood, Kate Sebastian, and Sara J. Scherr, Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems:Agroecosystems, A joint study by International Food Policy Research Institute and WorldResources Institute, International Food Policy Research Institute and World Resources Institute,Washington D.C.December 2000 / paperback / ISBN 1-56973-457-7 / US 20.00COASTAL ECOSYSTEMSLauretta Burke, Yumiko Kura, Ken Kassem, Carmen Revenga, Mark Spalding, andDon McAllister, Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems: Coastal Ecosystems, World ResourcesInstitute, Washington D.C.April 2001 / paperback / ISBN 1-56973-458-5 / US 20.00Lauretta Burke, WRIFOREST ECOSYSTEMSYumiko Kura, WRIKen Kassem, WRICarmen Revenga, WRIMark Spalding, UNEP-WCMCDon McAllister, Ocean VoiceInternationalEmily Matthews, Richard Payne, Mark Rohweder, and Siobhan Murray, Pilot Analysisof Global Ecosystems: Forest Ecosystems, World Resources Institute, Washington D.C.December 2000 / paperback / ISBN 1-56973-459-3 / US 20.00Forest EcosystemsWashington D.C.October 2000 / paperback / ISBN 1-56973-460-7 / US 20.00Emily Matthews, WRIRichard Payne, WRIMark Rohweder, WRISiobhan Murray, WRIFreshwater SystemsCarmen Revenga, WRIJake Brunner, WRINorbert Henninger, WRIKen Kassem, WRIRichard Payne, WRIGrassland EcosystemsRobin White, WRISiobhan Murray, WRIMark Rohweder, WRIivFRESHWATER SYSTEMSCarmen Revenga, Jake Brunner, Norbert Henninger, Ken Kassem, and Richard PaynePilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems: Freshwater Systems, World Resources Institute,GRASSLAND ECOSYSTEMSRobin White, Siobhan Murray, and Mark Rohweder, Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems:Grassland Ecosystems, World Resources Institute, Washington D.C.December 2000 / paperback / ISBN 1-56973-461-5 / US 20.00The full text of each report will be available on-line at the time of publication. Printedcopies may be ordered by mail from WRI Publications, P.O. Box 4852, HampdenStation, Baltimore, MD 21211, USA. To order by phone, call 1-800-822-0504 (withinthe United States) or 410-516-6963 or by fax 410-516-6998. Orders may also beplaced on-line at agroecosystem report is also available at Printed copies maybe ordered by mail from the International Food Policy Research Institute, Communications Service, 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006-5670, USA.PILOT ANALYSISOFGLOBALECOSYSTEMS

ContentsFOREWORD . ixACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . xiINTRODUCTION TO THE PILOT ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL ECOSYSTEMS . Introduction/1COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 1Scope of the AnalysisKey Findings and Information IssuesConclusionsCOASTAL ZONE: EXTENT AND CHANGE . 11Working Definition of Coastal ZoneEstimating Area and Length of Coastal ZoneCharacterizing the Natural Coastal FeaturesExtent and Change in Area of Selected Coastal Ecosystem TypesHuman Modification of Coastal EcosystemsInformation Status and NeedsSHORELINE STABILIZATION . 25Importance of Shoreline StabilizationEffects of Artificial Structures on the ShorelineCondition of Shoreline Stabilization ServicesCapacity of Coastal Ecosystems to Continue to Provide Shoreline StabilizationInformation Status and NeedsWATER QUALITY . 31Coastal Water QualityCondition of Coastal WatersCapacity of Coastal Ecosystems to Continue to Provide Clean WaterInformation Status and NeedsBIODIVERSITY . 39Importance of BiodiversityDiversity of Coastal EcosystemsCondition of Coastal and Marine BiodiversityCapacity of Coastal Ecosystems to Sustain BiodiversityInformation Status and NeedsCoastal Ecosystemsv

FOOD PRODUCTION—MARINE FISHERIES . 51Importance of Marine Fisheries ProductionStatus and Trends in Marine Fisheries ProductionPressures on Marine Fishery ResourcesCondition of Marine Fisheries ResourcesCapacity of Coastal and Marine Ecosystems to Continue to Provide FishInformation Status and NeedsTOURISM AND RECREATION . 63Growth of Global TourismStatus and Trends of Tourism in the CaribbeanImpacts of Tourism on the Environment and the EconomyTourism Carrying CapacitySustainable TourismThe Role of Protected AreasInformation Status and Environments . 11Coastal Zone Statistics by Country . 14–15Coastal Characterization Summary . 16Mangrove Area by Country . 18Mangrove Loss for Selected Countries . 19Coastal Wetland Extent and Loss for Selected Countries . 20Comparison of Two Coral Reef Area Estimates . 21Coastal Population Estimates for 1990 and 1995 . 23Average Beach Profile Change in Selected Eastern Caribbean Islands . 27Number of Known Littoral Species for Selected Species Groups . 41Number of Known Marine Species for Selected Species Groups . 42Threatened Littoral Species . 44Threatened Marine Species . 46–47Level of Threats to Coral Reefs Summarized by Region and Country . 48Number of Invasive Species in the Mediterranean, Baltic Sea, and Australian Waters . 50Comparison of Maximum Landings to 1997 Landings by Fishing Area . 53State of Exploitation and Discards by Major Fishing Area . 54Trophic Categories . 56Tourist Arrivals in the Caribbean by Main Markets . 64Leakages of Gross Tourism Expenditures . igurevi1. UNEP Regional Seas . 132. Natural versus Altered Land Cover Summary . 223. Number of Oil Spills . 344. Total Quantity of Oil Spilled . 355. Number of Harmful Algal Bloom Events: 1970s–1990s . 366. Growth in Number of Marine Protected Areas over the Last 100 Years . 437. Pelagic and Demersal Fish Catch for the North Atlantic: 1950–1997 . 528. Commercial Harvest of Important Fish Stocks in the Northwest Atlantic . 559. Catches by Trophic Level for the Two Northern Atlantic Fishing Areas in 1950–54 and 1993–97 . 5710. Piscivore/Zooplanktivore (PS/ZP) Ratio for the Northwest Atlantic . 5811. PS/ZP Ratio for the Mediterranean and the Black Sea . 5912. PS/ZP Ratio for the Northwest Pacific . 6013. Catches by Trophic Level for the Northeast Pacific Fishing Areas in 1950–54 and 1993–97 . 6014. Travel and Tourism GDP in the Caribbean . 6415. Travel and Tourism Employment in the Caribbean . 6516. Per Capita GDP and Tourism as Percentage of GDP for Selected Countries in the Caribbean . 66PILOT ANALYSISOFGLOBALECOSYSTEMS

BOXESBoxBoxBoxBoxBox1. Areas Definitions . 12Global Distribution of Known Trawling Grounds . 23Coral Bleaching . 47Classification of Catch Data into Trophic Categories . 56Voluntary Guidelines for Sustainable Coastal Tourism Development in Quintana Roo, Mexico . racterization of Natural Coastal FeaturesNatural versus Altered Land Cover within 100 km of CoastlinePopulation Distribution within 100 km of CoastlineDistribution of Known Trawling GroundsLow-lying Areas within 100 km of CoastlineEutrophication-related ParametersPCB Concentration in Mussels in the U.S. Coastal Waters: 1986–1996Global Occurrence of Hypoxic ZonesShellfish Bed Closures in the Northeast U.S.: 1995Beach Tar Ball Observations in Japan: 1975–1995Global Distribution and Species Richness of Pinnipeds and Marine TurtlesGlobal Distribution of Mangrove DiversityGlobal Distribution of Coral DiversityDistribution of Coral Bleaching Events and Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Hot Spots, 1997–1998Threatened Marine Important Bird Areas in Middle EastMajor Observed Threats to Coral ReefsPeriod of Peak Fish Catch and Percent Decline Since the Peak YearPiscivore and Zooplanktivore Catch Trend: apMapMapMapMapMapREFERENCES . 71Coastal Ecosystemsvii

ForewordEarth’s ecosystems and its peoples are bound together in agrand and complex symbiosis. We depend on ecosystems tosustain us, but the continued health of ecosystems depends,in turn, on our use and care. Ecosystems are the productiveengines of the planet, providing us with everything from thewater we drink to the food we eat and the fiber we use forclothing, paper, or lumber. Yet, nearly every measure we useto assess the health of ecosystems tells us we are drawing onthem more than ever and degrading them, in some cases atan accelerating pace.Our knowledge of ecosystems has increased dramaticallyin recent decades, but it has not kept pace with our ability toalter them. Economic development and human well-being willdepend in large part on our ability to manage ecosystemsmore sustainably. We must learn to evaluate our decisions onland and resource use in terms of how they affect the capacity of ecosystems to sustain life — not only human life, butalso the health and productive potential of plants, animals,and natural systems.A critical step in improving the way we manage the earth’secosystems is to take stock of their extent, their condition,and their capacity to provide the goods and services we willneed in years to come. To date, no such comprehensive assessment of the state of the world’s ecosystems has been undertaken.The Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems (PAGE) beginsto address this gap. This study is the result of a remarkablecollaborative effort between the World Resources Institute(WRI), the International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI), intergovernmental organizations, agencies, researchinstitutes, and individual experts in more than 25 countriesworldwide. The PAGE compares information already available on a global scale about the condition of five major classesof ecosystems: agroecosystems, coastal areas, forests, freshwater systems, and grasslands. IFPRI led the agroecosystemanalysis, while the others were led by WRI. The pilot analysis examines not only the quantity and quality of outputs butalso the biological basis for production, including soil andwater condition, biodiversity, and changes in land use overtime. Rather than looking just at marketed products, such asCoastal Ecosystemsfood and timber, the study also analyzes the condition of abroad array of ecosystem goods and services that people need,or enjoy, but do not buy in the marketplace.The five PAGE reports show that human action has profoundly changed the extent, condition, and capacity of allmajor ecosystem types. Agriculture has expanded at the expense of grasslands and forests, engineering projects havealtered the hydrological regime of most of the world’s majorrivers, settlement and other forms of development have converted habitats around the world’s coastlines. Human activities have adversely altered the earth’s most important biogeochemical cycles — the water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles— on which all life forms depend. Intensive managementregimes and infrastructure development have contributedpositively to providing some goods and services, such as foodand fiber from forest plantations. They have also led to habitat fragmentation, pollution, and increased ecosystem vulnerability to pest attack, fires, and invasion by nonnative species. Information is often incomplete and the picture confused, but there are many signs that the overall capacity ofecosystems to continue to produce many of the goods andservices on which we depend is declining.The results of the PAGE are summarized in World Resources2000–2001, a biennial report on the global environment published by the World Resources Institute in partnership withthe United Nations Development Programme, the United Nations Environment Programme, and the World Bank. Theseinstitutions have affirmed their commitment to making theviability of the world’s ecosystems a critical development priority for the 21st century. WRI and its partners began workwith a conviction that the challenge of managing earth’s ecosystems — and the consequences of failure — will increasesignificantly in coming decades. We end with a keen awareness that the scientific knowledge and political will requiredto meet this challenge are often lacking today. To make soundecosystem management decisions in the future, significantchanges are needed in the way we use the knowledge andexperience at hand, as well as the range of information broughtto bear on resource management decisions.ix

A truly comprehensive and integrated assessment of global ecosystems that goes well beyond our pilot analysis isnecessary to meet information needs and to catalyze regionaland local assessments. Planning for such a Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is already under way. In 1998, representatives from international scientific and political bodies began to explore the merits of, and recommend the structurefor, such an assessment. After consulting for a year and considering the preliminary findings of the PAGE report, theyconcluded that an international scientific assessment of thepresent and likely future condition of the world’s ecosystemswas both feasible and urgently needed. They urged local,national, and international institutions to support the effortas stakeholders, users, and sources of expertise. If concludedsuccessfully, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment will generate new information, integrate current knowledge, developmethodological tools, and increase public understanding.Human dominance of the earth’s productive systems givesus enormous responsibilities, but great opportunities as well.The challenge for the 21st century is to understand the vulnerabilities and resilience of ecosystems, so that we can findxways to reconcile the demands of human development withthe tolerances of nature.We deeply appreciate support for this project from theAustralian Centre for International Agricultural Research,The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, The NetherlandsMinistry of Foreign Affairs, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, the United Nations Development Programme, the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, the Global Bureau of the United States Agencyfor International Development, and The World Bank.A special thank you goes to the AVINA Foundation, theGlobal Environment Facility, and the United Nations Fundfor International Partnerships for their early support of PAGEand the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, which was instrumental in launching our efforts.JONATHAN L ASHPresidentWorld Resources InstitutePILOTANALYSISOFGLOBALECOSYSTEMS

AcknowledgmentsThe World Resources Institute and the International FoodPolicy Research Institute would like to acknowledge the members of the Millennium Assessment Steering Committee, whogenerously gave their time, insights, and expert review comments in support of the Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems.Edward Ayensu, Ghana; Mark Collins, United NationsEnvironment Programme - World Conservation MonitoringCentre (UNEP-WCMC), United Kingdom; Angela Cropper,Trinidad and Tobago; Andrew Dearing, World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD); Janos Pasztor,UNFCCC; Louise Fresco, FAO; Madhav Gadgil, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India; Habiba Gitay, Australian National University, Australia; Gisbert Glaser, UNESCO;Zuzana Guziova, Ministry of the Environment, Slovak Republic; He Changchui , FAO; Calestous Juma, Harvard University; John Krebs, National Environment Research Council, United Kingdom; Jonathan Lash, World Resources Institute; Roberto Lenton, UNDP; Jane Lubchenco, Oregon StateUniversity; Jeffrey McNeely, World Conservation Union(IUCN), Switzerland; Harold Mooney, International Councilof Scientific Unions; Ndegwa Ndiangui, Convention to Combat Desertification; Prabhu L. Pingali, CIMMYT; Per PinstrupAndersen, Consultative Group on International AgriculturalResearch; Mario Ramos, Global Environment Facility; PeterRaven, Missouri Botanical Garden; Walter Reid, Secretariat;Cristian Samper, Instituto Alexander Von Humboldt, Colombia; José Sarukhán, CONABIO, Mexico; Peter Schei, Directorate for Nature Management, Norway; Klaus Töpfer, UNEP;José Galízia Tundisi, International Institute of Ecology, Brazil; Robert Watson, World Bank; Xu Guanhua, Ministry ofScience and Technology, People’s Republic of China; A.H.Zakri, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia.The Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems would not havebeen possible without the data provided by numerous institutions and agencies.The authors of the coastal ecosystem analysis wish to express their gratitude for the generous cooperation and invaluable information we received from the following organizations:Caribbean Association for Sustainable Tourism; CaribbeanTourism Organization; Center for International Earth ScienceCoastal EcosystemsInformation Network (CIESIN); Coastal Resources Center,University of Rhode Island; Fisheries Department, Food andAgriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation; Island Resources Foundation, Virgin Islands; Japan OceanographicData Center; National Ocean Service, National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration (NOAA); Ocean Voice International, Ottawa, Canada; UNEP/Global Resource InformationDatabase, Nairobi, Kenya; Veridian-MRJ Technology Solutions, Virginia, U.S.A.; UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC); World Travel and Tourism Council.The authors would also like to express their gratitude tothe many individuals who contributed data and advice, attended expert workshops, and reviewed successive drafts ofthis report.Tundi Agardy, Conservation International; Salvatore Arico,Division of Ecological Sciences, UNESCO; Jaime Baquero,Gary Spiller, and Robert Cambell, Ocean Voice International;Barbara Best, USAID; Simon Blyth, Lucy Conway, Neil Cox,Ed Green, Brian Groombridge, Chantal Hagen, JoannaHugues, and Corinna Ravillious, UNEP-WCMC; CharlesEhler, Suzanne Bricker, Paul Orlando, Tom O’Connor, DanBasta, Al Strong, Jim Hendee, and Ingrid Guch, NOAA; JohnCaddy, Luca Garibaldi, Richard Grainger, Serge Garcia, andDavid James, Fisheries Department, FAO; Gillian Cambers,Coast and Beach Stability in the Lesser Antilles Project; SteveColwell and Shawn Reifsteck, Coral Reef Alliance; Ned Cyr,Global Ocean Observing System, UNESCO; Charlotte DeFontaubert, IUCN; Uwe Deichmann, World Bank; RobertDiaz, Virginia Institute of Marine Science; Paul Epstein,Harvard Medical School; Jonathan Garber, US Environmental Protection Agency; Lynne Hale, James Tobey, PamRubinoff, and Maria Haws, Coastal Resources Center, University of Rhode Island; Giovanni Battista La Monica, Department of Land Science, University of Rome; JohnMcManus, International Center for Living Aquatic ResourcesManagement; Bruce Potter, Island Resources Foundation;Lorin Pruett, Hal Palmer, and Joe Cimino, Veridian-MRJ Tech-xi

nology Solutions; Kelly Robinson, Caribbean Association forSustainable Tourism; Charles Sheppard, University ofWarwick; Ben Sherman, University of New Hampshire;Mercedes Silva, Caribbean Tourism Organization; Matt Stutz,Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Duke University; SylviaTognetti, University of Maryland.We also wish to thank the many individuals at WRI whowere generous with their time and comments as this reportxiiprogressed: Dan Tunstall, Norbert Henninger, EmilyMatthews, Siobhan Murray, Gregory Mock, Jake Brunner, andTony Janetos. Johnathan Kool and Armin Jess were extremelyhelpful in producing final maps and figures. A special thankyou goes to Hyacinth Billings, Kathy Doucette, Maggie Powell,and Carollyne Hutter for their editorial and design guidancethrough the production of the report.PILOTANALYSISOFGLOBALECOSYSTEMS

I n t r o d u c t i o nt ot h eP A G EIntroduction to the Pilot Analysis ofGlobal EcosystemsPEOPLE AND ECOSYSTEMSThe world’s economies are based on thegoods and services derived from ecosystems. Human life itself depends on thecontinuing capacity of biological processes to provide their multitude of benefits. Yet, for too long in both rich andpoor countries, development prioritieshave focused on how much humanitycan take from ecosystems, and too littleattention has been paid to the impact ofour actions. We are now experiencingthe effects of ecosystem decline in numerous ways: water shortages in thePunjab, India; soil erosion in Tuva, Russia; fish kills off the coast of North Carolina in the United States; landslides onthe deforested slopes of Honduras; firesin the forests of Borneo and Sumatra inIndonesia. The poor, who often dependdirectly on ecosystems for their livelihoods, suffer most when ecosystems aredegraded.A critical step in managing our ecosystems is to take stock of their extent,their condition, and their capacity tocontinue to provide what we need. Although the information available todayis more comprehensive than at any timepreviously, it does not provide a complete picture of the state of the world’secosystems and falls far short of management and policy needs. Informationis being collected in abundance butefforts are often poorly coordinated.Scales are noncomparable, baselinedata are lacking, time series are incomplete, differing measures defy integration, and different information sourcesCoastal Ecosystemsmay not know of each other’s relevantfindings.OBJECTIVESThe Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems(PAGE) is the first attempt to synthesizeinformation from national, regio